Abstract

Aviation has experienced rapid expansion as the world economy has grown. Passenger and freight movements by air continue to increase, making air travel the fastest growing sector amongst all transportation modes. Managing the global air transportation system to ensure continued economic and social benefits, while simultaneously mitigating environmental impacts, is becoming a major challenge. The system is large, complex, multi-disciplinary and involves numerous stakeholders with different agendas. Therefore, sustainable development of the system depends crucially on the delivery to policy makers and stakeholders of robust results incorporating improved understanding of the processes and interactions between the key system elements that determine environmental, societal and economic impacts.

The Aviation Integrated Modeling (AIM) project has the goal of developing a policy assessment tool for aviation, environment and economic interactions at local and global levels, now and far into the future (www.AIMproject.aero). It contains a set of inter-linked modules of the key elements relevant to this goal. These include models for aircraft/engine technologies, air transport demand, airport activity and airspace operations, all coupled to global climate, local environment and economic impact blocks. This architecture of interacting modules is designed to capture major interdependencies and for different trade-offs to be examined, for example between competing environmental and economic metrics. The architecture is also designed to fulfill the policy assessment role of AIM: each module provides an input site for candidate policy “levers” that can be employed to manipulate the future evolution of the air transportation system and hence to assess their environmental and economic impact via the metrics produced from the impact modules.

Embedded within the AIM architecture, the Aircraft Technology & Cost Module has the goal of modeling the aircraft performance and emissions during typical “gate-to-gate” flight phases for airframe and engine technology levels likely to have an effect within the forecast horizon. These technology levels include current and proposed future technologies such as blended-wing bodies, open rotor engines, advanced combustors and more extensive use of biofuels. The rate at which these new technologies penetrate into the fleet and the retirement rate of old aircrafts will also affect the emission inventories. This fleet turnover as well as the operational procedures (such as load factors, flight trajectories and airline strategies), which are modeled by other modules within AIM, are also considered in the modeling of fuel use and emissions. Furthermore, the module can take as inputs the relevant policy options aimed at reducing the environmental impact of air transport, for example, certification and regulatory pressures affecting airframe and engine technology evolution paths.

Biography

María Vera-Morales is a research associate at the Cambridge University Engineering Department. Currently she is a member of the Institute for Aviation and the Environment leading the aircraft technology and cost module of the Aviation Integrated Modelling (AIM) project. Previously a PhD student and research associate at the Whittle Laboratory with research activities in low pressure turbines, compressor leading edges and duct aerodynamics. Her expertise includes experimental research at realistic engine conditions. She holds a Diploma Course from the von Karman Institute for Fluid Dynamics and a PhD from the University of Cambridge.